12. Ghosh S. Yamarik S. Is it measured by the creation of trade? A new review of the impact of regional trade agreements. Econ Lett. (2004) 82:213-9. doi: 10.1016/j.econlet.2003.06.001 Figure 4. Trade profile for China. Ti china to its partners (above) and partner in China (below) within 5 years of the effective date of each BTA. The left and right zones show the results of export links (imports). China`s BTA partners include Chile (CHL), Hong Kong (HKG), New Zealand (NZL), Pakistan (HAP) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (AS).
The score values displayed in red (violet) z imply a higher (lower) IT level in the 5-year period after tf. Trade agreements in red (purple) regions indicate a positive (negative) trend in IT between partners. A positive (negative) value of the BTA b impact index is attributed to a trade agreement if it is followed by both a positive trend and a higher level (negative trend and lower level) of ti. 9. Krugman PR. The step towards free trade zones. In: Proceedings – Economic Policy Symposium. Jackson Hole.1991. S.7-58. Available online at: ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedkpr/y1991p7-58.html Figure 2. Distribution of BTA (purple) and “blue” impact indices for all 107 BTA implemented between 1995 and 2008 (dark colors, see Table 1 of the appendix for a complete list). The results obtained for the 15,199 pairs of countries that did not negotiate bilateral agreements, with the adoption of an arbitrary reference year in 2002.
Each of the four distributions is standardized and therefore represents the relative frequency. Note the logarithmic scale of the empirical frequencies displayed. If negotiations for a multilateral trade agreement fail, many nations will instead negotiate bilateral agreements. However, new agreements often result in competing agreements between other countries, eliminating the benefits of the free trade agreement (FTA) between the two countries of origin. The resulting probability distributions of BTA action indices for all partners with A SET are shown in Figure 2 in dark colors. Note that the underlying distributions of `out` and `in` are based on 214 entries, because in general `out (C1,C2) is ≠out (C2,C1). To put these results in perspective, we continue to assess the relevance of the empirically identified effects of TADs by comparing estimated BTA impact indices with the corresponding values for pairs of countries that did not enter into a trade agreement until 2014. For the latter objective, we calculate the BTA index for the 15,199 pairs of countries that did not sign such an agreement during the study period, and we expect an arbitrary reference year in 2002. As shown in Figure 2, the presence of a BTA generally coincides with an increased probability of a positive BTA index. Note that this simple analysis does not directly establish a causal link with the implementation of the BTA, which results in greater confusion of economic ties, as it would also be consistent with the statement that countries with generally more positive economic development have a greater tendency to negotiate trade agreements.